WTPN31 PGTW 050900    
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 022    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 17.7N5 117.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N5 117.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 18.2N1 117.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 18.8N7 117.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 19.2N2 116.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH QUADRANT        
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 19.5N5 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 18.7N6 113.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.8N6 117.1E0.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (BEBINCA), NOW LOCATED 202 WEST-NORTHWEST OF 
LINGAYEN, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE 
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE PULSING CONVECTION OVER THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND 
PRODUCTS INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, INTO A WEAKNESS 
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THIS TIME, A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL 
TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW AND TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 16 FEET. 
REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051352Z6), 052100Z8 (DTG 051952Z2), 
060300Z9 (DTG 060152Z4) AND 060900Z5 (DTG 060752Z0).//


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