SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 021500 1. TYPHOON 31W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z5 --- NEAR 14.5N0 122.5E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N0 122.5E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 15.2N8 120.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 15.8N4 118.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 16.2N9 117.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 16.6N3 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.6N4 114.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.7N2 122.0E5. TYPHOON (TY) 31W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AT 020730Z2 DEPICTED A SMALL ROUND EYE WHICH NOW HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY BAND HAS CLOSED OFF AS A CONVECTIVE RING. OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE OVER ALL QUADRANTS. EARLIER OBSERVATION REPORTS FROM DAET, LUZON ISLAND REFLECTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KNOTS (1 MINUTE AVG) FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDING OF 994.5 MB. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TRACK OVER LUZON ISLAND. THEN, RE- INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8), 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0), 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3).// NNNN