WTPN31 PGTW 011500 1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- NEAR 12.1N4 126.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N4 126.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 13.6N0 125.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 14.6N1 122.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 15.2N8 120.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 15.7N3 118.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 16.5N2 114.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.5N8 126.4E3. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (BEBINCA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAOANG, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ORGANIZING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS, INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY, UNTIL LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON, AND WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011952Z8), 020300Z5 (DTG 020152Z0), 020900Z1 (DTG 020752Z6) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021352Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 30W (XANGSANE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN