SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 240900 1. TYPHOON 29W (YAGI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- NEAR 23.3N8 127.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N8 127.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 23.7N2 125.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 23.9N4 123.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 23.9N4 122.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 23.9N4 120.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 23.8N3 117.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.4N9 126.8E7. TYPHOON (TY) 29W (YAGI) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A 240152Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM 37GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE, SYMMETRIC, SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED PRIMARY BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A 10 NM CLOUD-FILLED, IRREGULAR EYE HAS DEVELOPED. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE. MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 29W IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH EAST OF IWO JIMA. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 29W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER CHINA. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE COAST OF CHINA CAUSING TY 29W TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY, WESTWARD TRACK. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN, UPPER SOUTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IT BEFORE FURTHER WEAKENING COMMENCES AS TY 24W MOVES OVER TAIWAN AFTER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241351Z6), 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2), 250300Z0 (DTG 250151Z4) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0).// NNNN