WTPN31 PGTW 211500 SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z6 --- NEAR 23.0N5 165.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N5 165.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 24.4N0 164.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 25.7N4 164.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 26.9N7 164.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 27.9N8 165.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 29.3N4 168.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 23.3N8 165.4E6. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A (APPROX) 25 NM ROUND EYE. A 210953Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. STY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED NEAR 30.0N3 171.0E9. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS, INCREASED MID- LATITUDE WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9), 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1), 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4).// NNNN