SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 131500 1. TYPHOON 22W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 045 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z7 --- NEAR 28.0N0 125.2E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 155 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N0 125.2E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 29.1N2 124.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 155 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 30.2N5 124.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 32.4N9 123.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 36.1N0 124.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 42.3N9 124.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 28.3N3 125.1E9. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE, AND ALSO INDICATES THAT SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 130929Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS INCREASING EYEWALL CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE 130101Z6 SSM/I PASS AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW OVERALL, HOWEVER, RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INDICATIONS OF SHEAR ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. SYNOPTIC BUOY OBSERVATIONS (WMO NO. 22001), APPROXIMATELY 15 NM EAST OF TY 22W, INDICATE 45 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 968 MB. TY 22W IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR 36N9 160E7 WESTWARD TO CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THE 130000Z4 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK ERRATICALLY BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW ALONG 123E6). TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER THE 6-12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IMPACTS THE STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER KOREA IS NOT EXPECTED. TY 22W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BASICALLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A GENERLLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2), 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).//