SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 130900 1. TYPHOON 22W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 044 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z0 --- NEAR 27.9N8 125.8E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N8 125.8E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 28.7N7 125.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 29.6N7 124.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 31.7N1 124.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 100 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 34.9N6 124.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 090 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 41.8N3 123.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 28.1N1 125.6E4. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE WITH WEAKENING EYEWALL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 130101Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AND JMA COMPOSITE RADAR DATA DEPICT TIGHT, NARROW CONVECTIVE BANDING ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM OKINAWA CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. BUOY OBSERVATIONS (WMO NO. 22001) APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTH OF TY 22W SHOW 54 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 962 MB. MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 22W IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 22W SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH IMPACTS THE STEERING FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD ABOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4), 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8).//