WTPN31 PGTW 061500    
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 017    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 14.5N0 147.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N0 147.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 15.9N5 146.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 17.3N1 145.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 19.3N3 144.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 21.4N7 142.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 24.9N5 138.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.8N3 147.2E4.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO 
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061025Z4 
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF 
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 200 
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH-NORTHWEST 
OF THE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. UW-CIMSS 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SOUTH AND WEST. 
A 060758Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
TS 22W ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, THEN 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER A 
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THEN INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES 
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 72-HOUR TIMEFRAME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2), 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4), 070900Z6 (DTG 
070751Z0) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W 
(WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (BOPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


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