WTPN31 PGTW 060900 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 016 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 13.9N3 147.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 147.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 14.8N3 147.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 15.8N4 146.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 17.8N6 145.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 19.6N6 143.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 22.7N1 139.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.1N6 147.4E6. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (SAOMAI), LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM EAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060147Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THEN INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 72-HOUR TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6), 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2), 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (BOPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN