WTPN31 PGTW 051500 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 013 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 22W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 15.3N9 147.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N9 147.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 14.6N1 147.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 15.8N4 146.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 17.5N3 145.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 18.7N6 143.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 21.7N0 140.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.1N7 147.7E9. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (SAOMAI), LOCATED ABOUT 110 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, MARIANA ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 051032Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WEAKENS, TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1), 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3), 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN