SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 031500 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z6 --- NEAR 15.9N5 153.5E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 153.5E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 16.0N7 152.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 17.0N8 150.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 18.2N1 148.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 19.7N7 146.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 23.1N6 143.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.9N5 153.1E0. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (SAOMAI), LOCATED ABOUT 530 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF GUAM, MARIANA ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. A 031043Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) (TEMPS OF -84 DEGREES CELSIUS) INDICATIVE OF ARRESTING DEVELOPMENT (NOT NECESSARILY WEAKENING). MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER IWO JIMA IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW, REFLECTING IN THE MID-LEVELS SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, BY MID PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE TS 22W TO TURN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9), 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4).// NNNN