WTPN32 PGTW 281500 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (MARIA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- NEAR 20.2N4 115.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N4 115.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 19.3N3 115.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 19.3N3 116.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 20.2N4 117.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 21.0N3 117.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 22.9N3 118.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.0N2 115.4E1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS ALSO SHOWS A SMALL LLCC WITH A SMALL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA, BUT INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TD 21W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TS 20W (PRAPIROON) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS TS 20W MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD, A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL PICK UP THE STEERING FOR TD 21W AND MOVE IT INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD. TD 21W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THEN INTENSIFY AT A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG 281952Z7), 290300Z4 (DTG 290152Z9), 290900Z0 (DTG 290752Z5) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291352Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN