SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 210300    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z3 --- NEAR 13.9N3 112.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 112.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 14.5N0 112.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 15.2N8 112.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 15.8N4 111.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 16.3N0 110.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 17.4N2 108.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.1N6 112.5E9.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS DRIFTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
202330Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS 
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH ABROAD CIRCULATION INDICATED IN SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF 
THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE GOOD 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THEN TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 19W IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS, THEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH UNDER A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL 
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6), 
211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3), 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9) AND 220300Z7 (DTG 
220151Z1). REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (BILIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//



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