SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192351Z AUG 00// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTPN31 PGTW 200900 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z8 --- NEAR 13.0N4 113.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N4 113.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 13.7N1 112.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 14.4N9 111.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 15.4N0 110.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 16.3N0 109.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 17.4N2 107.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.2N6 112.8E2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 180530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE UW- CIMSS ANALYSIS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT TD 19W IS UNDER UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TD 19W SHOULD TRACK MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SUB-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 192351Z AUG 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200000) NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2), 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8), 210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0) AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6). REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (BILIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// BT #XXXX NNNN