WTPN32 PGTW 220300 1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (BILIS) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z4 --- NEAR 20.8N0 124.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N0 124.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 22.1N5 121.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 23.9N4 119.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 25.5N2 116.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 26.1N9 115.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 27.2N1 113.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.1N4 123.5E1. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STY 18W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS A 20 NM ROUND EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 212152Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH NUMEROUS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT STY 18W (BILIS) IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STY 18W (BILIS) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN TAIWAN BETWEEN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR POINT. A SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS IT ENTERS THE TAIWAN STRAIT. STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CHINA COAST BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR POINT AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220752Z8), 221500Z0 (DTG 221352Z5), 222100Z7 (DTG 221952Z1) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230152Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (KAEMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN