SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 151500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WARNING NR 002    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z9 --- NEAR 33.4N0 179.8W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N0 179.8W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 34.6N3 179.3W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 35.9N7 178.7W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 37.1N1 178.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 33.8N4 179.6W3.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION NORTH TO 
EAST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-
LATITUDE LOW NEAR 43N7 175W3 WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH 
(WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM). A 150836Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE 
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP 
CONVECTION NORTH. PREVIOUSLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, 
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROUGH TO THE 
NORTHWEST, APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TD 16W IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TD 16W IS 
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL TD INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT) 
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
151200Z9 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT 
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2), 160300Z0 (DTG 
160151Z2), 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7).
REFER TO HURRICANE HECTOR (10E) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (11E) WARNINGS 
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
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