SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN33 PGTW 160900    
1. TYPHOON 15W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 029    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 37.3N3 150.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 37.3N3 150.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 38.0N1 150.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 38.6N7 151.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 38.9N0 151.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 38.9N0 152.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 38.9N0 154.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 37.5N5 150.7E3.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF HOKKAIDO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160017Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE 
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW SOUTH OF TY 15W. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW HAS 
IMPROVED IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTORS. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE 
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE UPPER-LOW IS NOW SITUATED AT ABOUT 37N0 
143E8, EAST OF HONSHU. THE UW-CIMSS LOW-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 40-50 KT GRADIENT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 2 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 
SYSTEM CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE 
WEST. TY 15W (EWINIAR) HAS DECREASED SPEED AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS 
THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST TO EAST OF THE 
SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD 
ALLOWING TY 15W TO RESUME A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. TY 15W (EWINIAR) IS 
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY 
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR 
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 
161353Z9), 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5), 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7) AND 
170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3).//
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