SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN33 PGTW 150300    
1. TYPHOON 15W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 024    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z6 --- NEAR 34.8N5 148.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.8N5 148.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 35.3N1 149.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 35.9N7 151.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 36.6N5 152.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 37.2N2 153.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 38.0N1 154.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 34.9N6 148.8E1.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 
6 HOURS AND HAS AN 18 NM EYE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM IS UNDER A REGION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, ENHANCING 
THE OUTFLOW AND ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. TY 15W (EWINIAR) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE 
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS A 
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE 
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME 
SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. TY 15W (EWINIAR) IS 
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY 
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR 
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG 
150753Z1), 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8), 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4) AND 
160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6).//



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