WTPN33 PGTW 130900 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z0 --- NEAR 31.5N9 139.4E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 110 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N9 139.4E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 32.5N0 141.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 33.4N0 144.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 34.3N0 145.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 35.1N9 147.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 37.6N6 149.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 31.8N2 140.0E5. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES, LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. TS 15W (EWINIAR) IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 15W (EWINIAR) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT) BY THE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME, COMPLETING XTT WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6), 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2), 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0).// NNNN