WTPN33 PGTW 121500    
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 30.7N0 136.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N0 136.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 32.4N9 138.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 33.2N8 140.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 33.7N3 142.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 34.4N1 144.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 35.8N6 149.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 31.1N5  137.1E2.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 
17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND SHIP 
SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE 
CONVECTION SHEARED 12 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 200 
MB ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPERLEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED 
FURTHER TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT, THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS WEAKENED, 
CREATING A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TS 15W (EWINIAR) IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 12 HOURS, THEN TRACK 
INCREASINGLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TS 15W 
(EWINIAR) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX 
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 
(DTG 121953Z1), 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3), 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9) AND 
131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6).//


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