SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN33 PGTW 101500 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 18.6N5 139.0E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N5 139.0E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 20.9N1 138.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 23.6N1 137.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 26.0N8 136.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 28.3N3 135.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 31.2N6 135.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.2N2 138.8E0. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A RECENT SSMI PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LLCC WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN MORE NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TS 15W (EWINIAR) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9), 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4). REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN