WTPN33 PGTW 091500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 002    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 15.0N6 141.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 141.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.0N8 140.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.9N8 139.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 20.7N9 137.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 22.4N8 136.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 25.0N7 133.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.5N1 140.7E2.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AND 
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK TO 
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST 
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND 
THEN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 08 FEET. 
REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7), 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0), 
100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3). REFER TO 
TYPHOON 13W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


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