SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN32 PGTW 011500 1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- NEAR 22.1N5 151.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N5 151.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 22.2N6 149.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 22.6N0 147.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 23.2N7 145.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 23.9N4 142.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 25.5N2 137.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.1N5 150.5E1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY, THOUGH, CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY. THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH RIDGING SITUATED BETWEEN TWO TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOWS. MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED EAST OF JAPAN SHOULD REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7), 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9), 020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2).// NNNN