SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 270300 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- NEAR 27.3N2 129.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N2 129.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 27.9N8 129.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 28.4N4 128.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 28.8N8 127.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 29.1N2 126.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 31.3N7 125.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 27.5N4 129.8E0. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (BOLAVEN) HAS TAKEN A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE KOREA STRAIT IS INFLUENCING THE TRACK. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A 90 NM IRREGULAR CDO (CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST) HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 11W (BOLAVEN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS UNDER AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7).// NNNN