WTPN31 PGTW 261500 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z1 --- NEAR 26.8N6 129.8E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N6 129.8E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 27.6N5 130.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 28.5N5 130.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 29.4N5 130.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 30.3N6 130.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 32.9N4 128.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 27.0N9 129.9E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 34 AND 44 KNOTS NEAR THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY, INDICATING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BELOW THE CONVECTION. TS 11W (BOLAVEN)IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTHEASTWARD, THEN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS WESTWARD. AFTER THE 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MERGES INTO A RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS UNDER AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6), 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).// NNNN