WTPN31 PGTW 260900 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z4 --- NEAR 26.3N1 128.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N1 128.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 27.0N9 129.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 27.7N6 130.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 28.3N3 130.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 28.8N8 130.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 30.9N2 129.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 26.5N3 129.1E3. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 26330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 37 AND 42 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED BELOW THE CONVECTION AS WELL. TS 11W (BOLAVEN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTHEASTWARD, THEN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS WESTWARD. AFTER THE 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MERGES INTO A RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS UNDER AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8), 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2).// NNNN