WTPN31 PGTW 191500    
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z3 --- NEAR 27.9N8 142.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N8 142.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 29.2N3 142.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 30.5N8 142.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 31.7N1 142.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 32.8N3 142.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 35.5N3 143.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 28.2N2 142.2E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (TEMBIN), LOCATED 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED AND 
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TS 09W IS 
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 
UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS 
CURRENTLY APPROACHING JAPAN. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD 
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO 
THE EAST ACTING AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER THE 36 
HOUR PERIOD, TS 09W SHOULD START TO RECURVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AS APPROACHING TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ENHANCES 
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 
MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX 
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 
(DTG 191951Z6), 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9), 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5) AND 
201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2).//
BT
#XXXX
NNNN