SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 190300 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z0 --- NEAR 26.3N1 142.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N1 142.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 28.3N3 142.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 30.2N5 142.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 32.0N5 142.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 33.8N4 143.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 38.0N1 146.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 26.8N6 142.2E9. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (TEMBIN), LOCATED 102 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION BASED ON 182330Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS, AND A SHIP OBSERVATION OF 41 KNOTS (10 MIN AVG) FROM A RELIABLE VESSEL IN THE VICINITY OF TS 09W. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SHEARING OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE RE- DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC NOTED IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TS 09W IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE NE COAST OF JAPAN IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT WITH SECONDARY TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SEA OF JAPAN. FORECAST IS FOR THIS SECONDARY MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD, CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE LOW/MID LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THEN RECURVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3), 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9).// NNNN