WTPN31 PGTW 161500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z0 --- NEAR 20.0N2 112.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N2 112.1E5
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   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 21.2N5 111.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
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   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 22.6N0 111.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 24.0N6 111.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.3N5 112.0E4.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA, AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
PAST POSITIONS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY POORLY DEFINED SYSTEM POSSIBLY
CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THESE LLCCS AND BEING 
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL ACT AS THE DOMINATE 
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL TD 
STRENGTH DUE TO A PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT WITH POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX 
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 
(DTG 161951Z3), 170300Z1 (DTG 170151Z5), 170900Z7 (DTG 170751Z1) AND 
171500Z4 (DTG 171351Z8).//


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