SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 141500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z8 --- NEAR 15.9N5 120.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 120.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 16.8N5 118.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 17.8N6 117.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 18.8N7 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 19.8N8 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 21.4N7 113.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.1N8 119.9E0.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED OVER LUZON NEAR SAN CARLOS, 
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA, AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM PAST 
POSITIONS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 10 TO 15 
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM 
WITH PULSATING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER 
THE SYSTEM. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 27N9 
135E9 TO BEYOND 27N9 120W3 (OVER EASTERN CHINA), AND WILL ACT AS THE 
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 07W IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
MAINTAIN MINIMAL TD STRENGTH DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD, TD 07W SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH 
IN A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 8 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1),
150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3), 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9) AND 151500Z2 (DTG
151351Z6).//



NNNN