SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 131500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- NEAR 15.6N2 122.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N2 122.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 16.0N7 121.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 16.4N1 120.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 17.1N9 119.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 17.9N7 117.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 19.6N6 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.7N3 122.6E1.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED 75 NM EAST OF LUZON, HAS 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE
EAST DUE TO A 131213Z1 BROADBAND VISIBLE IMAGE, WHICH REVEALED A
COMPLETELY EXPOSED LLCC. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
BROADBAND VISIBLE AND 131130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 25 KNOTS. IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION POSITIONED WEST OF THE 
LLCC OVER LUZON. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OVER THE REGION. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
27N9 131E5, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER TAIWAN. TD 07W IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES LUZON. AFTERWARD, TD 07W 
SHOULD BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 
IS 8 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT 
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG 
140151Z2), 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).//



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