WTPN21 PGTW 012330
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N2 135.0E9 TO 14.7N2
130.6E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT 
IMAGERY AT 012130Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5N8 133.6E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7 132.5E1 IS NOW 
CENTERED NEAR 12.5N8 133.6E3, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
THAT HAS ORGANIZED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT PARTIAL 
QUIKSCAT PASS, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND 
STRENGTHEN. THIS LLCC IS DEVELOPING IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM VIETNAM TO YAP. THE UW-CIMSS AND 200 MB 
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE AREA IS WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.  
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
022330Z1.//


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