SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 031500 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z6 --- NEAR 16.6N3 131.5E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N3 131.5E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 18.2N1 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 19.9N9 130.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 21.3N6 130.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 110 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 22.6N0 130.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 26.3N1 131.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.0N8 131.3E8. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (KIROGI) HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 05W (KIROGI) HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 05W (KIROGI) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TIMEFRAME. A PASSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TS 05W (KIROGI) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS, BUT WILL BE ENTERING A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION AN INTENSIFICATION WILL BEGIN TO SLOW.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9), 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4).// NNNN