WTPN31 PGTW 011500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 17.3N1 107.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N1 107.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 18.6N5 106.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 19.6N6 105.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.6N4 107.4E2.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM
, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PERSISTENCE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH 
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE LLCC HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO 
LOCATE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN AS WELL AS 
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH CONTINUED 
INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID 
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH, CURRENTLY SITUATED 
OVER 
OKINAWA
 WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE GULF OF TONKIN, IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OVER SOUTHEASTERN 

CHINA
 DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, TD 04W SHOULD TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TD 04W IS FORECAST 
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7), 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9) AND 020900Z1 (DTG 
020751Z5).//
BT
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