WTPN31 PGTW 311500    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z7 --- NEAR 14.8N3 110.2E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N3 110.2E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 16.0N7 109.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 17.1N9 108.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 18.9N8 106.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   
48 HRS
, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 20.2N4 104.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.1N7 110.0E2.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM
, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
311130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS AND 
SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION 
ATTEMPTING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS 
INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW, AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ORGANIZING OVER THE LLCC ALLOWING 
THE STORM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. 
INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, 
AND LANDFALL NEAR CUA HOI, 
VIETNAM
 AT APPROXIMATELY 020400Z6, WILL 
SERVE TO INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM 
OVER LAND BY THE 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 311200Z7 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA 
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0), 
010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8), 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 
011351Z1).//




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