SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 190900    
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- NEAR 22.1N5 126.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N5 126.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 24.4N0 130.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 27.1N0 135.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 29.4N5 140.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   
48 HRS
, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 31.2N6 145.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.7N1 127.3E3.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
OKINAWA
, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190630Z9 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION 
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INFLUENCE. 200 MB 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE SYSTEM NEAR LUZON. WEAK DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER TS 02W AND 
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES COMMENCE NEAR 25N7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE SULU SEA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
POLEWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. TS 02W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE TURNING 
MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. TS 02W IS FORECAST 
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TS 02W SHOULD BEGIN 
TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EAST 
CHINA SEA
.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 RJTX  FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6), 200300Z5 (DTG
200151Z9) AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5).//



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