SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 101500 1. TYPHOON 01W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 21.9N2 138.3E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N2 138.3E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 24.0N6 140.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 26.0N8 142.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 27.3N2 144.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS , VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 28.5N5 147.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 29.4N5 152.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.4N8 138.8E0. TYPHOON (TY) 01W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA , HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. A 100813Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. 2OO MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TY 01W. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE UPPER LEVELS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD (EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTH) ORIENTED LOW/MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN (WEST TO EAST) BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE TY 01W TO TAKE A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. TYPHOON 01W (DAMREY) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7), 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9), 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2).// NNNN