SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 100900 1. TYPHOON 01W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z7 --- NEAR 20.9N1 137.7E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N1 137.7E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 23.0N5 139.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 25.1N8 141.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 26.5N3 144.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS , VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 27.9N8 146.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 29.5N6 153.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.4N7 138.2E4. TYPHOON (TY) 01W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA , HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TY 01W (DAMREY) HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES HAVE MOVED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STILL EXISTS. POLEWARD (EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTH) ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN (WEST TO EAST) BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE TY 01W TO TAKE A MORE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE BENEATH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TYPHOON 01W (DAMREY) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TY 01W (DAMREY) SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1), 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7), 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9) AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5).// NNNN