SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 081500    
1. TYPHOON 01W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 012    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 14.4N9 132.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N9 132.4E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 16.0N7 133.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 18.5N4 134.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 21.2N5 135.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   
48 HRS
, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 23.2N7 137.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 27.7N6 141.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.8N3 132.7E3.
TYPHOON (TY) 01W (DAMREY), LOCATED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA 
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF 
SAMAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE PRESENCE OF A BANDING EYE. TY 01W 
(DAMREY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS IT MOVES INTO 
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. TY 01W (DAMREY) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO 
SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
081200Z1 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT 
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4), 090300Z2 (DTG 
090151Z6), 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9).//




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