SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 061500 1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z9 --- NEAR 12.4N7 132.2E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N7 132.2E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 13.7N1 131.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 14.8N3 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 16.0N7 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS , VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 17.2N0 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 19.6N6 132.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.7N0 132.1E7. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF SAMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE AND HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. TS 01W IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, TS 01W SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TS 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO ENCOUNTER MORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2), 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4), 070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).// NNNN